{"id":1772,"date":"2013-12-27T13:00:37","date_gmt":"2013-12-27T18:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/?p=1772"},"modified":"2013-12-27T14:41:19","modified_gmt":"2013-12-27T19:41:19","slug":"2014-book-industry-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/?p=1772","title":{"rendered":"2014 Book Industry Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"IMG_0859\"So it is the end of the year. Time for everyone to have their ‘best-of’ and ‘predictions for’ posts. I am no different. But I also want to state upfront that I reserve the right to change my mind at any time as new information presents itself.<\/p>\n

See, it isn’t about being right and have no mistakes. It is about having a position and then as the industry unfolds, shift those opinions to help see what is next.<\/p>\n

Each of these “predictions” are things to consider and plan for in 2014. Some are continuations of things already happening. Some are extensions. Some are pivoted from others.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Ebook sales will continue to rise at a double-digit rate. There are still many publishers that are converting backlist books.<\/li>\n
  2. Amazon will continue to be the King Pin. But there are dents in the armor and challenges ahead.<\/li>\n
  3. Now that the DOJ lawsuits are over and corporate publisher margins are better, look for consolidation.<\/li>\n
  4. Children’s books in digital will increase considerrably as a % of sales. Much of this will be driven by dedicated tablets.<\/li>\n
  5. B&N will shirk and close 10-15% of their stores. They will remain the biggest and most important book-chain in the nation.<\/li>\n
  6. The numbers bandied about in the industry will continue to contradict as each estimate is made will less than full information.<\/li>\n
  7. Pricing will continue to be managed and used as the primary ebook sales tool.<\/li>\n
  8. New models will gain market share in the consumer eBook market. A form of “modified subscription” platforms will lead the change.<\/li>\n
  9. The library ebook market will continue to be more experimental than consumer. Libraries will gain marketshare.<\/li>\n
  10. Many “self-published” authors will create “independent publishers” and publish a list of books curated from other self-pubbed authors.<\/li>\n
  11. Publishing will continue to shed jobs as profits remain high. The industry shifts as digital doesn’t need as many people to publish titles.<\/li>\n
  12. Stephen King will have a #1 best-seller.<\/li>\n
  13. Apple iBooks will overtake B&N Nook as the #2 ebook retailer.<\/li>\n
  14. In an internet world of unlimited supply, brand names will continue to be important.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    So it is the end of the year. Time for everyone to have their ‘best-of’ and ‘predictions for’ posts. I … Learn more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[14,51,43,48,79,115,99],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1772"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1772"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1772\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1779,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1772\/revisions\/1779"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}