{"id":950,"date":"2012-01-01T10:28:13","date_gmt":"2012-01-01T15:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/?p=950"},"modified":"2014-07-30T09:52:03","modified_gmt":"2014-07-30T14:52:03","slug":"2012-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/?p=950","title":{"rendered":"2012 predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

My last post was a recap of 2011. This one is a list of some predictions for 2012. I generally shy away from predictions for I believe no one really knows and its all a crapshoot. When you are right, it is luck. When you are wrong, it is luck.<\/p>\n

So a few thoughts for 2012:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Although Amazon will be aggressive, they will continue to lose market share in the eBook universe. I don’t see them dropping below 50%, but will be less than 60% by the end of the year.<\/li>\n
  2. Publishers will work out an eBook for library program. All of the majors will embrace it and although libraries will not get everything they want, at least a program will be put into place. 3M will cut into Overdrive’s dominance and will lead this innovation.<\/li>\n
  3. Although color eReaders have made a splash, children’s picture books will not be significant digitally in 2012. It is counter-intuitive to underplay any eBook growth, but there are still major limitations to viewing picture books on a screen. Maybe by 2014.<\/li>\n
  4. Fiction (and the genres Mystery, Romance, Sci-Fi) will be 75% digital.<\/li>\n
  5. There will be a new, major, deep-pocketed competitor in the eBook space. Currently Amazon & B&N drive the business with over 85% share between the two. Apple or Google will increase share. But someone new will enter the fray. It will be a company that has the resources to make it work.<\/li>\n
  6. The price of conversion to ebooks will continue to drop. The cost of creating new ebooks will also be much less.<\/li>\n
  7. There will be much more transparency in reporting of ebook sales. We will have a lot more real information to gauge success with.<\/li>\n
  8. Ebook sales growth percentage will start to decline. The sales will continue to grow but the rate<\/em> will be less. We will start to see a flattening of the growth curve.<\/li>\n
  9. Two of the Big6 corporate publishers will be bought and there will be the “Big4.”<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Some thoughts for 2012. I look forward to the year and all the changes ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    My last post was a recap of 2011. This one is a list of some predictions for 2012. I generally … Learn more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[123,14,48,55],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=950"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1688,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950\/revisions\/1688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/38enso.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}