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2014 Book Industry Predictions

12.27.2013, No Comments, Uncategorized, by Jack W Perry.

So it is the end of the year. Time for everyone to have their ‘best-of’ and ‘predictions for’ posts. I am no different. But I also want to state upfront that I reserve the right to change my mind at any time as new information presents itself.

See, it isn’t about being right and have no mistakes. It is about having a position and then as the industry unfolds, shift those opinions to help see what is next.

Each of these “predictions” are things to consider and plan for in 2014. Some are continuations of things already happening. Some are extensions. Some are pivoted from others.

Ebook sales will continue to rise at a double-digit rate. There are still many publishers that are converting backlist books.
Amazon will continue to be the King Pin. But there are dents in the armor and challenges ahead.
Now that the DOJ lawsuits are over and corporate publisher margins are better, look for consolidation.
Children’s books in digital will increase considerrably as a % of sales. Much of this will be driven by dedicated tablets.
B&N will shirk and close 10-15% of their stores. They will remain the biggest and most important book-chain in the nation.
The numbers bandied about in the industry will continue to contradict as each estimate is made will less than full information.
Pricing will continue to be managed and used as the primary ebook sales tool.
New models will gain market share in the consumer eBook market. A form of “modified subscription” platforms will lead the change.
The library ebook market will continue to be more experimental than consumer. Libraries will gain marketshare.
Many “self-published” authors will create “independent publishers” and publish a list of books curated from other self-pubbed authors.
Publishing will continue to shed jobs as profits remain high. The industry shifts as digital doesn’t need as many people to publish titles.
Stephen King will have a #1 best-seller.
Apple iBooks will overtake B&N Nook as the #2 ebook retailer.
In an internet world of unlimited supply, brand names will continue to be important.

BCS – It Worked

12.09.2013, No Comments, Uncategorized, by Jack W Perry.

Unknown The BCS is coming to an end after 16 years. Although many college football fans want to complain, their track record of having the top two teams in college football play for the championship worked. It was far better than the previous system of using polls and allowing teams to claim #1 even if they didn’t play anyone of note in the bowl game.

No doubt, the transfer to a four team playoff from a two team one will be better. But it will also cause controversy because someone will be #5 and excluded. In college hoops, the tournament has been expanded to 68 teams and some complain then! So, no matter what, a school will feel left out.

I don’t think it should be expanded beyond the top four teams. This gives the regular season a lot of importance. This way if a team loses a game, they might not be in the running for #1. That is fine. This is college football and perfection is expected.

In the 16 years of the BCS, there have been 15 different teams from six different conferences and one independent (Notre Dame in 2013). The SEC has won the most with nine championships and possibly a tenth if Auburn wins. One year, two SEC teams played in the game. Alabama won the National Championship but didn’t even win their own conference.

Florida State and Oklahoma have each played in four championship games and Alabama, LSU and Ohio State three each.

College football has gone through so many recent changes. The conferences are all mixed up and some “super-conferences” are forming. RIght now the majors are expanding, SEC (14); ACC (14); Pac12 (12); Big10 (12) and Big12 (10). Yes, the Big10 has 12 teams and the Big12 has 10 teams. My guess is soon each of these conferences will have 16 teams in two divisions with a playoff. This might be the “preliminary” rounds. Take these five conferences and add in a single wildcard from the rest and that gives six potential teams. From that two will get eliminated but there will be four left.

This is a debate that will rage forever.

But the BCS brought sanity to a system that was formally built on random opinions, favoritism and not on the field.

It is progress….

I think.

Tags: Football

Zen of Random Stimulation and Lateral Thinking

11.27.2013, Comments Off, Books, by Jack W Perry.

Edward deBono coined the phrase “lateral thinking” in 1967 and wrote the book, LATERAL THINKING (Harper & Row, US) in 1970. Basically it is about a way to reason and look at situations from different points of view. I am sure there are many complex facets to this. But I generally find a single piece of it and apply my own perspective.

I have referenced and read bits of the book for years. I like the way it focuses me and helps exercise my brain.

Last week, I randomly opened the book to page 193, chapter 18 : “Random stimulation.”

I read two pages.

My understanding and spin on these two pages (this is a review of only two pages of a book).

Generating exposure to new stimuli through the following four ways:

Random Inputs (RI) – must be accepting to everything. Who knows where the next inspiration comes from? Don’t miss the opportunity by being closed minded. Keep an open mind.
Other’s Ideas (OI) – even those diametrically against. Many times the best solutions come from a hybrid of two opposites.
Different Fields (DF) – everything is related. The task is to discover and understand the relationships. Once that happens, new solutions can be applied to old and new problems.
Physical Exposure (PE) – get out of the house. See and small and touch different things. Browse. Anywhere, anytime.

Then once any/all of the above are done, just observe and let things happen. Don’t try to force the issue too much. Let go of controlling that time and open your mind. I generally have the issue or problem in the back of my mind. So that I am aware of what might be helpful. But it is a struggle to try to maintain a blank mind. But it helps.

Many paths can lead to the same solution.

It is important to move forward.

When blocked, it is necessary to re-view the pressure, and come up with a new path.

The results will be achieved and creative solutions will be learned along the way.

Tags: Authors | Consulting | LateralThinking | Zen

League Of Denial

11.16.2013, No Comments, Sports, by Jack W Perry.

images I just finished reading LEAGUE OF DENIAL : The NFL, Concussions, and The Battle for Truth by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Steve Fainaru. It was published by Crown Archetype (part of Penguin-RH; division of Bertelsmann). The book was edited by Mauro DiPreta. The agent is Scott Waxman.

I want to rave about this wonderful book.

This book is an indictment of the executives that ran the National Football League and especially former commissioner Paul Tagliabue. They systematically covered-up, ignored and stonewalled anyone who had researched and had proof that former players were prone to severe brain damage from playing football. The evidence is overwhelming that football (played the way it was with devastating head to head hits) causes players to literally lose their minds.

The NFL knew this and for almost two decades stopped anyone who tried to bring it up. Slate aptly compares the NFL actions to Big Tobacco. They created their own board, hid the truth and finally had to come clean.

The book also tells the story of Mike Webster, one of the great centers of all-time. He was a key player on the 4-time SuperBowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers (74-75-78-79). “Iron Mike” was one of the toughest to play the game. He was smart and a team leader. But after his playing days ended, he changed. He ended up broke and homeless. A shell of himself. He had lost his mind from hundreds of hits to the head. He had to fight the NFL for years to just get some disability payments. He got about $600 a month. He died at 50.

The NFL is the richest sports league in the entire world. They generated over $9-billion in revenue last year and Forbes states they could hit $25-billion by 2027. The NFL is a juggernaut in many ways. Their TV deal is enormous, their merchandising is huge and the ratings continue to rise. The SuperBowl is the single biggest sporting event in the world. I am a fan. I watch most Sundays, some Mondays and occasionally on Thursdays.

images A PBS Frontline documentary was made from the book. It premiered last month (OCT 2013). Although it was widely touted and reviewed, I have not seen it yet. I actually “read the book, before the movie.” Their website has this amazing interview outtake with Oakland Raiders HOF center Jim Otto – another one of the toughest. Otto says, “we were gladiators. We played until we could no longer go on.” Otto’s mind is sharp at 75. He took a pounding and is beat up physically, but he is resilient and lucid. Otto wonders why no one helped Webster.

Although the NFL was horrible and covered up a lot, it wasn’t all the owners fault. The players wanted to play. Sure there was pressure from the powerful head coach and fear of losing one’s job to motivate. It is a tough sport for tough people. A violent game for men who want to beat one another up.

62485 There is progress with new commissioner Roger Goodell. There was a settlement of $765-million. The NFL settled a few weeks before the documentary ran and the book released. A lot of money. Some say it’s enough. I don’t. But it’s a good start. The NFL will eventually pay for more. The game is violent and should come up with a way to help pay for the wounded warriors. Many of these players didn’t get the million dollar contracts and had to continue working. Webster’s initial salary was $16,000. The modern players make millions and can more afford it. But still, some type of overall plan would benefit everyone.

There is plenty of money to take care of them.

Plus it’s just the right thing to do.

Baseball Franchise Valuations – Bloomberg

11.09.2013, No Comments, Uncategorized, by Jack W Perry.

MLB-vector-logos-636x480 Bloomberg just came out with their valuations for every Major League Baseball team. Check it out, the interactive graphic is really cool and fun to play with. There really are not any surprises to the rankings, but it is fascinating to see the various differences from top to bottom.

These rankings are different from the ones that Forbes presents because Bloomberg has added in the value of sports networks. I believe that is a smart addition. In today’s world, owning the media and controlling ability to broadcast the teams everywhere is key.

The TOP 5:

1) New York Yankees ($3.3 billion): Of course, they are the top dogs. One of the most valuable teams in all of sports in the entire world.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.1 billion): They don’t get credit for a “regional sports TV deal” but are still #2. But over a BILLION less than the top.
3) Boston Red Sox ($2.1 billion): Gate, concessions and merchandising all keep Boston near the top. Success on the field has helped.
4) New York Mets ($2.0 billion): Although the Mets suck, the team is still worth a lot. The media deals are very good and the NY market huge.
5) Chicago Cubs ($1.3 billion): Another big drop from the 4th place Mets. Cubs continue to hold value although the team never wins.

The BOTTOM 5:

30) Tampa Bay Rays ($0.53 billion): Tampa is worth 1/7th of the Yankees. Remarkable that the team has been winning for the past few years.
29) Kansas City Royals ($0.54 billion): The Royals are owned by former Wal-Mart executive. Cheap. This is an example of not investing in the team.
28) Cleveland Indians ($0.57 billion): Get rid of the “smiling Indian logo.” Small market with no media revenues.
27) Colorado Rockies ($0.58 billion): Attendance is pretty good at #10, but again no media properties hamper the valuation.
26) Oakland Athletics ($0.59 billion): Same story as the others. No media. No fans. No concessions. No money. But they win.

The major differences between the most valuable and the least comes down to the media packages. The TV, radio, etc. rights are a function of the size of the audience. The three largest markets, NY, LA and CHI have the most valuable teams. BOS has such a strong regional appeal (all of New England) and “Red Sox Nation” throughout the USA. Plus, Boston has won three World Series in 10 years.

TB, KC, CLE, DEN and OAK are all small markets. Although none of these teams has won a World Series, most of them have been competitive. So, the size of their markets totally restricts their ability to have franchises worth more. Also, none of these teams has a “regional sports network.” That is a huge difference.

Some comps:

The Yankees made $932-million from their regional sports network. That alone is more than the total value of 18 of the 30 teams.
The Yankees paid $97-million into the revenue share pool. The Royals received $36-million from the pool. Socialism?
The Yankees made $265-million from the gate receipts alone. The six bottom teams (TB, KC, CLE, OAK, PIT, SD) all made less than $40-million.
The Yankees are still over $1-billion higher than the second place Dodgers.

My favorite team, the St. Louis Cardinals are in the middle at #15 and $0.85-billion). Although they were #2 in attendance and have a successful franchise and tradition, the lack of a media outlet and regional sports network brings their value down.

Own the media.

The value will follow.

Tags: Baseball | Cardinals | Forbes

Thinking in New Boxes

11.04.2013, No Comments, Books, by Jack W Perry.

Thinking-in-New-Boxes-by-Luc-de-Brabandere One of the books I am currently reading is titled THINKING IN NEW BOXES – A New Paradigm for Business Creativity. The book is written by Luc de Brabandere and Alan Ivy of the Boston Consulting Group. It is edited by Random House executive Will Murphy.

Like all business books, it has it’s usual take-aways, graphs, tables, catchy phrases and lists. Also like many business books, the authors are consultants or “thought-leaders” who travel the world espousing their wisdom. This book is no different than the usual business tome — but I am enjoying it quite a bit.

I read a lot of business books. I find most of them interesting and there is usually something to be learned. No doubt, many are repetitive phrases and all contain similar lessons. But then, there really isn’t anything new to management and getting your employees to be creative. The key is to establish an attitude that allows for creativity. To view it with fresh eyes and a ‘”beginner’s brain.”

SJ_paperback__1_ I never read a business book from front-to-back. I always skip around. I may read the last chapter first or the index. I also like to write in the books. These are both reasons why I seldom buy business eBooks. I much prefer the paper form. It is ideal for writing notes and for flipping around. I have found that digital just doesn’t deliver the same experience. So, I may read a business biography (STEVE JOBS by Isaacson) in digital form but not management or policy books.

For THINKING IN NEW BOXES, I found a wealth of information reading the first page of the Glossary.

Some notes on how this book has and will help me:

The Theory of the Box
- The Box is a Mental Model
  - Concepts
  - Stereotypes
  - Categories
  - Ideas
  - Frameworks
  - Paradigms
- Need to break out of the old “mental model.”
- New Way to Think
  - Organize Facts
  - Connect the Links
  - Use the Information to Create Patterns
  - Repeat
- The Power of the New Box
  - Baggage-free
  - Risk-taking
  - Fact-based
  - Psychology involved
PERCEPTION = REALITY
26-31-34-42-44-46-64-67-82-06-11

I don’t expect this outline to mean much by itself. But having read enough of the book, it does make sense. It helps me to review projects in a new manner and to explore beyond the obvious. I link this thinking to Edward de Bono’s classic work LATERAL THINKING.

Looking forward to reading more. Unknown

Tags: Authors | Consulting | LateralThinking

Physical Books are Still Effective Marketing Tools

10.27.2013, No Comments, Books, Sports, by Jack W Perry.

I just received four books from my friend and Random House sales rep Tom Nevins. Tom is a long-time marketing pro at RH.

He was kind enough to send me the following titles:

ONE SUMMER (America, 1927) by Bill Bryson – Doubleday.
TOP DOWN (A Novel of the Kennedy Assassination) by Jim Lehrer – Random House.
LEAGUE OF DENIAL (The NFL, Concussions, and the Battle for Truth) by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Steve Fainaru – Crown Archetype.
THINKING IN NEW BOXES (A New Paradigm for Business Creativity) by Luc de Brabandere and Alan Ivy – Random House.

I will read all four of the books for they are the type of books I like to read. Most of the non-fiction (although Lehrer is Fiction, it appeals to my non-fiction self). These books are the ones that never seem to come up in any of the “daily deals” or the endless emails I get from the 6-7 different platforms I subscribe to. Most of the email marketing focuses on genre fiction and selling eBooks at 99 cents.

I first read Bill Bryson with the brilliant A WALK IN THE WOODS. That was the story of his attempt to walk the Appalachian Trail. His new one, ONE SUMMER, looks like more excellent narrative history from Bryson. Nineteen Twenty-Seven was one of those watershed years in American history.

Jim Lehrer has written 21 novels. I have probably read a dozen of them. I used to watch him on the PBS NewsHour and have always liked his easy-to-read, but torn-from-history novels. He also keeps them short with this one at less than 200 pages.

The next book, LEAGUE OF DENIAL, covers one of the most controversial themes in sports today – the history of how the NFL covered up the severity of head injuries and the long-term effects on the players. The league is stronger and richer than ever, but uses it’s players as disposable parts. I am very much looking forward to reading this one. This is a tie-in to a Frontline special (ESPN was a part of it but pulled out at the last minute).

The final book, THINKING IN NEW BOXES, is a business/psychology book. I read a lot of business titles. Most of them say basically the same thing, but I generally find some bit of wisdom in them. I especially enjoy books such as this one that brings in psychology. The aspect of how we think, act and perceive things is fascinating. I seldom read business books from cover to cover but like to scan and read “out of order.” I have delved into this one and like the perspective. It reminds me a bit of de Bono’s classic concept “Lateral Thinking.”

In this era of digital everything, SEO, blogging and all the various methods to have books “discovered”, there still is value in sending physical books as a part of the overall marketing plan.

Thanks Tom.

Tags: Authors | LateralThinking | Lehrer | NFL | RandomHouse

New York Comic Con 2013

10.18.2013, No Comments, Books, by Jack W Perry.

2013-10-10 19.08.55 While many in the publishing industry attended the Frankfurt Book Fair, I chose to stay closer to home and go to the 8th annual New York Comic Con.

I have attended every NYCC and although the growth has been tremendous, the essence and fun of the show has not changed. It is still a great show to attend and learn about what is happening in pop culture.

The original NYCC had about 25,000 in attendance, this year there was over 130,000. It sold out again.

Book publishers have increased their presence every year. This year it looked like the publishers even stepped it up more. It reminded me of the ABA of many years ago. When the annual book show created interest in the big titles, with long lines to meet authors and there was a buzz around. The difference is the people in line to see their favorite authors actually are BUYING the books. There was not the dread of the trolls who go to the ABA (and later BEA) just picking up free samples.

Most of the publishers were in the same area of the show floor. I walked through many times and came away very optimistic about the industry and the future of print. Actually I had a sense of deja-vu for many of the publisher booth’s looked like they were recycled from old BEAs. There was a lot of activity and energy.

I was mostly impressed by the Random House Inc booth (8-10 sections); the amount of fans at the Penguin booth; the title selection at the Abrams booth and the overall look of the Simon & Schuster booth. Amazon was there with Jet Comics and 47-North.

One booth was very cool, Anomaly Productions. They only have two books out, but both blend the qualities of print and the technology of digital. I remember them from last year with their oversized illustrated book ANOMALY: The Graphic Novel (which can be bought in a gift box). But I have read and am very excited about their new book – SHIFTER. The new book can be read like a old-school graphic novel. But there is also a corresponding smart-phone and tablet app that uses the camera and highlights selected parts and animates them in 3D. Very cool.

Others that were of interest include the 5-Hour Energy; Vivarin; Geico and Verizon booths.

The Artists Alley was once again in a separate section from the floor. It was in the north area of the Javits Center. This area was packed too. Many well known artists had their booths but also up-and-coming ones. What I have always like about ComicCons is the connection and easy-to-meet relationships between the fans and the creators.

I didn’t get a chance to attend any of the panels. I wanted to but just ran out of time and energy.

Maybe I should have stopped by the Vivarin booth a bit more?

Some random photos

2013-10-10 20.58.05 2013-10-10 20.13.45 2013-10-10 18.39.44 2013-10-10 17.51.18 2013-10-10 18.19.59 2013-10-10 20.13.29 2013-10-10 18.46.44 2013-10-10 18.12.59 2013-10-10 18.04.26 2013-10-10 18.04.13

Tags: AnomalyProductions | BEA | NYCC | Penguin | RandomHouse

Vonnegut

10.06.2013, No Comments, Books, by Jack W Perry.

images I met Kurt Vonnegut twice.

The first time was at a book party for Andrew Dubus and his new collection of short stories, DANCING AFTER HOURS. I was the national accounts director of sales for Knopf (division of Random House) and back then there were a lot of book parties. I remember walking through the party and just “bumping into” Mr.Vonnegut. We exchanged a few words and that was it. I was thrilled. He probably didn’t even remember.

The second time I met him was 4-5 years later. The Random House offices were at 201 East 50th in NYC. I was walking from Grand Central Terminal and saw Vonnegut sitting on a bench along Lexington Ave. I did a double-take. I walked past him and thought he looked familiar. Kurt Vonnegut was very distinctive looking. I turned back and stopped. Had about a five minute conversation with him. I don’t remember the details. I walked away feeling very cool for I had a chance to talk to a genius.

Although I am a fan of his work and was thrilled to meet him, I have not read every novel. I probably have read only 6-7 of his books.

My favorite is SLAUGHTERHOUSE FIVE. I love time travel novels and found the story of Billy Pilgrim thought provoking. I also enjoyed the movie. Many people were required to read it in school. I never had to read. I read it because I had seen the movie first and wanted to understand it better. I almost always read the book before the movie but in this case I didn’t because both came out decades earlier. Charlie Kaufman is rumored to be writing a new script for a new movie. I can’t wait.

My other favorites are BREAKFAST OF CHAMPIONS and the short story collection WELCOME TO THE MONKEY HOUSE. Both had the bizarre worlds and style that appealed to me. What I learned was that you could do whatever you want. The rules or writing, drawing, reading and creating are flexible. I took from Vonnegut that one could just be as one wanted to be. Go for it.

There is an interesting business story behind Vonnegut’s eBooks. Because a deal was struck a decade ago (years before Kindle existed), Rosetta Books acquired the digital rights. But Random House Inc. also has the rights. So, Amazon has two eBook editions of many of his titles. The Rosetta Books versions come up higher in search and are available on the Kindle Owners Lending Library (KOLL) for free. The books are also available in hardcover, trade paperback and mass market.

His work is also available for people to write fan fiction through Amazon’s Kindle World program. This was received by many as wrong, just wrong. But it remains. I do not think it takes away from his greatness. I believe it probably makes Vonnegut even more of an icon.

Kurt Vonnegut – an American master and an original.

I have one of his books signed — what an original signature too.

Michael Crichton Ruled the 1990s

09.06.2013, No Comments, Books, by Jack W Perry.

Open Road Media released 10 early novels of genius Michael Crichton earlier this summer. These books are in the collection THE MED SCHOOL YEARS and written between 1966-72 and under the name of John Lange. The retro covers and the series look great. I have just started reading them and look forward to the complete set. Coincidently, Hard Case Crime is bringing out trade paperback of these books (with different covers) this Fall. I may end up buying both the eBook and the physical.

I have been reading Crichton for years and especially liked his string of books from the 90s; JURASSIC PARK (1990); RISING SUN (1992); DISCLOSURE (1994); THE LOST WORLD (1995); AIRFRAME (1996) and TIMELINE (1999). He dominated the decade with his six best-sellers (in addition to re-issues in mass market of some of his earlier titles like CONGO and SPHERE).

I read each of the books immediately. I would read them in 24 hours. He was so topical. I actually think he helped create the culture of the 90s. Each one of these books was made into a big movie. All well made with JURASSIC PARK being a movie/ride/experience that had a major impact on pop culture.

I was the National Accounts Sales Director for Knopf (part of Random House but pre-Bertelsmann). We were having a good year and the numbers were strong. But this year Knopf was “dropping in” Michael Crichton’s latest AIRFRAME in early December.

Just in time for Holiday giving we were getting an “un-budgeted” 2-million copy gift that would propel us far beyond the annual goals.

This was great! We already had made budget, but the billing for mega-author Crichton would push the bonus to the max. Every rep in Sales made more money because of this single book.

I mentioned this to Mr. Crichton when we had a “meet and greet” in the conference room. I thanked him. I went on how his book was going to make the entire Sales Force have better bonuses. He looked at me and said, “Do you think it will sell?”

I was confident in my answer; I knew it would blow out like his last few. I replied, “of course, you are on a roll!” He was the biggest selling author in America and he was one of the smartest people ever to pen novels. He had even won an Edgar for A CASE IN NEED written at Harvard Medical School! Which brings us back to the reissues from Open Road. Can’t wait to read them.

By the way, AIRFRAME went on to be a #1 smash and sell millions of copies.

Tags: Authors | Crichton | HardCaseCrime | Knopf | OpenRoad