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2012 predictions

01.01.2012, Uncategorized, by .

My last post was a recap of 2011. This one is a list of some predictions for 2012. I generally shy away from predictions for I believe no one really knows and its all a crapshoot. When you are right, it is luck. When you are wrong, it is luck.

So a few thoughts for 2012:

  1. Although Amazon will be aggressive, they will continue to lose market share in the eBook universe. I don’t see them dropping below 50%, but will be less than 60% by the end of the year.
  2. Publishers will work out an eBook for library program. All of the majors will embrace it and although libraries will not get everything they want, at least a program will be put into place. 3M will cut into Overdrive’s dominance and will lead this innovation.
  3. Although color eReaders have made a splash, children’s picture books will not be significant digitally in 2012. It is counter-intuitive to underplay any eBook growth, but there are still major limitations to viewing picture books on a screen. Maybe by 2014.
  4. Fiction (and the genres Mystery, Romance, Sci-Fi) will be 75% digital.
  5. There will be a new, major, deep-pocketed competitor in the eBook space. Currently Amazon & B&N drive the business with over 85% share between the two. Apple or Google will increase share. But someone new will enter the fray. It will be a company that has the resources to make it work.
  6. The price of conversion to ebooks will continue to drop. The cost of creating new ebooks will also be much less.
  7. There will be much more transparency in reporting of ebook sales. We will have a lot more real information to gauge success with.
  8. Ebook sales growth percentage will start to decline. The sales will continue to grow but the rate will be less. We will start to see a flattening of the growth curve.
  9. Two of the Big6 corporate publishers will be bought and there will be the “Big4.”

Some thoughts for 2012. I look forward to the year and all the changes ahead.

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