My last post was a recap of 2011. This one is a list of some predictions for 2012. I generally shy away from predictions for I believe no one really knows and its all a crapshoot. When you are right, it is luck. When you are wrong, it is luck.
So a few thoughts for 2012:
- Although Amazon will be aggressive, they will continue to lose market share in the eBook universe. I don’t see them dropping below 50%, but will be less than 60% by the end of the year.
- Publishers will work out an eBook for library program. All of the majors will embrace it and although libraries will not get everything they want, at least a program will be put into place. 3M will cut into Overdrive’s dominance and will lead this innovation.
- Although color eReaders have made a splash, children’s picture books will not be significant digitally in 2012. It is counter-intuitive to underplay any eBook growth, but there are still major limitations to viewing picture books on a screen. Maybe by 2014.
- Fiction (and the genres Mystery, Romance, Sci-Fi) will be 75% digital.
- There will be a new, major, deep-pocketed competitor in the eBook space. Currently Amazon & B&N drive the business with over 85% share between the two. Apple or Google will increase share. But someone new will enter the fray. It will be a company that has the resources to make it work.
- The price of conversion to ebooks will continue to drop. The cost of creating new ebooks will also be much less.
- There will be much more transparency in reporting of ebook sales. We will have a lot more real information to gauge success with.
- Ebook sales growth percentage will start to decline. The sales will continue to grow but the rate will be less. We will start to see a flattening of the growth curve.
- Two of the Big6 corporate publishers will be bought and there will be the “Big4.”
Some thoughts for 2012. I look forward to the year and all the changes ahead.